Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

No 318: Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of Sveriges Riksbank

Jens Iversen, Stefan Laséen, Henrik Lundvall and Ulf Söderström ()
Additional contact information
Jens Iversen: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden
Stefan Laséen: IMF, Postal: Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, Washington, DC, USA
Henrik Lundvall: National Institute of Economic Research (NIER), Postal: Stockholm, Sweden
Ulf Söderström: Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: We evaluate forecasts made in real time to support monetary policy decisions at Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden) from 2007 to 2013. We compare forecasts made with a DSGE model and a BVAR model with judgemental forecasts published by the Riksbank, and we evaluate the usefulness of conditioning information for the model-based forecasts. We also study the perceived usefulness of model forecasts for central bank policymakers when producing the judgemental forecasts.

Keywords: Real-time forecasting; Forecast evaluation; Monetary policy; Inflation targeting

JEL-codes: E37; E52

34 pages, March 1, 2016

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