Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden)

No 470: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Shocks: Evidence from Swedish Microdata

David Finck (), Mathias Klein () and Peter Tillmann ()
Additional contact information
David Finck: Deutsche Bundesbank
Mathias Klein: Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden, Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Peter Tillmann: University of Giessen

Abstract: We compile a unique dataset linking micro price data underlying the official Swedish producer price index with administrative firm level data and provide new evidence on the inflationary effects of global supply chain shocks. For identification, we interact exogenous shocks to global supply chains, obtained through a VAR model, with firm specific import shares. Shocks to global supply chains lead to a signif icant and persistent increase in producer prices with a peak response after two years. Importantly, average responses mask heterogeneous responses across firms. Relatively larger firms, firms with lower labor costs and a higher market share raise prices more strongly.

Keywords: Global supply chain shocks; producer prices; microdata; firm characteristics; price setting

JEL-codes: E31; F14; F61

Language: English

62 pages, August 1, 2026

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