SOFI Working Papers in Labour Economics,
Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research

Abstract: Divorce rates have risen markedly since the mid-20th century, yet our understanding of how this shift impacts children remains limited. This study investigates how the effect of parental divorce on educational attainment has changed across generations for cohorts born between 1951 and 1999. Leveraging detailed Swedish register data and employing sibling fixed effects estimations, I find that experiencing divorce during childhood is associated with a decrease in the likelihood of graduating from high school and attending university. These adverse effects have intensified significantly for cohorts born from the mid-1970s and onward, contrasting with weaker or insignificant effects for children born in the 1950s and 1960s. An analysis of mechanisms rules out several key potential reasons and provides suggestive evidence that the intensified effects stem from a shift in divorce patterns, with divorces increasingly occurring in families with higher marriage quality, making divorce more detrimental on average.

Keywords: parental divorce; family behavior; human capital

JEL-codes: I24; J12; J13

Language: English

46 pages, First version: January 16, 2025. Revised: September 8, 2025. Earlier revisions: September 8, 2025.

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