SOFI Working Papers in Labour Economics,
Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research

Abstract: Pretrial detention accounts for an important share of prison population around the globe and imposes detrimental consequences on defendants. We examine its impact on sentencing outcomes in Chile’s criminal justice system, where plea bargaining is a limited prosecution tool. Pretrial detention increases conviction probability from 53 to 76 percent. We also assess how this effect changed after a reform modified prosecution tools for a specific set of crimes (robberies). The impact of pretrial detention on conviction increases for robbery-related crimes while we observe no relevant changes for others. These findings highlight pretrial detention’s role in shaping criminal justice outcomes.

Keywords: pretrial detention; sentencing outcomes; plea bargaining; judge-IV design

JEL-codes: C26; D01; K42

57 pages, May 15, 2025

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