Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research

No 16/2023: Does Wealth Inhibit Criminal Behavior? Evidence from Swedish Lottery Winners and Their Children

David Cesarini (), Erik Lindqvist (), Robert Östling () and Christofer Schroeder ()
Additional contact information
David Cesarini: New York University
Erik Lindqvist: Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Postal: SOFI, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Robert Östling: Stockholm School of Economics
Christofer Schroeder: European Central Bank

Abstract: There is a well-established negative gradient between economic status and crime, but its underlying causal mechanisms are not well understood. We use data on four Swedish lotteries matched to data on criminal convictions to gauge the causal effect of financial windfalls on player`s own crime and their children`s delinquency. We estimate a positive but statistically insignificant effect of lottery wealth on players`own conviction risk. Our estimates allows us to rule out effects one fifth as large as the cross-sectional gradient between income and crime. We also estimate a less precise null effect of parental lottery wealth on child delinquency.

Keywords: economics of crime; juvenile crime; income and wealth inequality

JEL-codes: J13; K42

Language: English

46 pages, November 21, 2023

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