Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Research Papers in Economics,
Stockholm University, Department of Economics
No 2017:1: Pass-through with low inflation and volatile exchange rates
Annika Alexius () and Mikaela Holmberg ()
Additional contact information
Annika Alexius: Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University, Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Mikaela Holmberg: Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University, Postal: Department of Economics, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract: As central banks struggle to boost inflation rates in the face of low global inflation and volatile foreign exchange markets, it has become particularly important to understand how inflation in open economies is affected by movements in exchange rates and foreign inflation. Using a time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR, we analyze the behavior of pass-through across time and in relation to macroeconomic variables. We find little support for the Taylor (2000) hypothesis that pass-through is lower when inflation is close to target. In our data, inflation rates are often below rather than above target, and pass-through does not appear to increase significantly at low inflation rates. Furthermore, inflation persistence is unrelated to pass-through. The pass-through of foreign prices is much higher than the pass through of exchange rates. It is positively associated with the variance of foreign inflation, which is consistent with Calvo pricing.
Keywords: Pass through; inflation; Bayesian time varying parameter VAR
46 pages, January 27, 2017
Full text files
wp17_01.pdf
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