Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Umeå Economic Studies,
Umeå University, Department of Economics
No 478: Forecasting the Size Distribution of Financial Plants in Swedish Municipalities
Kurt Brännäs ()
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Kurt Brännäs: Department of Economics, Umeå University, Postal: S 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Abstract: The paper studies the forecasting of a future size distribution of plants. As a model we use an open Markov chain model for macro data. Estimation is by reparametrization instead of by inequality restrictions using single equation least squares. The estimator is studied in a small Monte Carlo experiment for short time series lengths and macro data. Well-known mobility indices and a new idea of using a truncated transition probability matrix are discussed and also studied in the Monte Carlo experiment. For the financial plants (1984-1993) we find evidence of mobility of a downsizing nature. In a one-step-ahead forecast evaluation we find some overprediction.
Keywords: Open Markov chain; Mobility index; Reparametrization; Least squares estimation; Plant size; Municipality
16 pages, October 4, 1998
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