Umeå Economic Studies,
Umeå University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

Keywords: Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis

JEL-codes: C12; C13; C22; C25; C51

13 pages, April 14, 1999

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Published as

Kurt Brännäs, Jörgen Hellström and Jonas Nordström, (2002), 'A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels', International Journal of Forecasting, vol 18, pages 19-30

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