Umeå Economic Studies,
Umeå University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This thesis consists of two papers dealing with fertility in Sweden. In paper [1] we discuss possible explanations for the variation in the Swedish fertility. We are primarily interested in economic and social conditions and their impact on the total fertility rate between 1965 and 2003. The period is chosen because of (i) the strong fluctuation in the TFR during the period 1965-2003 and (ii) the positive correlation between fertility and the female labour market participation rate from the early 1980s. This contrasts to earlier periods when the negative relationship was prevalent. The results from the study support a positive effect on fertility from female labour market participation and child allowance while divorces report a negative effect. The model structure that includes short run as well as long run effects seems to be the best specified model of a number of different model structures presented in the paper.

Contrary to the first paper, the second paper [2] has as starting point the number of children born by women in Sweden. A zero inflated Poisson model is applied to analyse if economic and social conditions have any impact on the number of children born by women in Sweden. The study is based upon women who have completed their life-time fertility cycle. The different variables on completed fertility is compared with women who still are in their fertile ages. The results show a difficulty to combine market work and children. The results also support the assumption that women with higher education have fewer children than women with lower education. However, an important conclusion from the study is that the negative correlation between a woman's level of education and her number of children only hold when incomplete fertility is analysed. The relationship between female education and children is not valid when completed fertility is studied.

Keywords: Total fertility rate; Completed fertility; Non-completed fertility; Time series; Count data; Sweden

JEL-codes: D19; J13

55 pages, June 2, 2006

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