Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Uppsala University, Department of Economics

No 2004:12: Far Out on the Yield Curve

Annika Alexius
Additional contact information
Annika Alexius: Department of Economics, Postal: Uppsala University, P.O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden

Abstract: Data on short investments in Swedish long-term bonds as the bonds mature contains unusually rich information about the relationship between duration and the first and second moments of bond returns. We identify three different channels through which duration affects bond returns. The liquidity preference hypothesis yields a direct link between duration and returns, which however disappears once indirect effects through the variance of returns and the price of risk are taken into account. The risk premia obtained from a multivariate GARCH-M model extended to allow the variance to depend on duration are of the same size as observed excess returns. Finally, duration appears to affect the relationship between bond returns and the risk free interest rate. One additional year of duration implies that the beta-coeffcient increases by 0.66.

Keywords: Bond returns; duration; multivariate GARCH

JEL-codes: C12; E43

41 pages, June 15, 2004

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