Working Paper Series,
Uppsala University, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper I evaluate inflation targeting for ten countries. The evaluation is based on unconditional as well as conditional measures of the variance of inflation around target. With strict inflation targeting, expectations of the future deviation from target given information about the deviation from the target today should be equal to zero. Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) when calculating the inflation rate, I find that the null hypothesis can be rejected for six of ten countries. In an extended approach I add lagged output gap as an information variable for countries where data was available. I then get the result that rational expectations and strict inflation targeting can be rejected for five countries. Out of the ten countries, the United Kingdom has conducted in‡ation targeting most in line with the theory of rational expectations and strict inflation targeting, and Poland the least.

Keywords: Inflation targeting; rational expectations; monetary policy

JEL-codes: E31; E52; E58

38 pages, September 17, 2010

Full text files

FULLTEXT02  

Download statistics

• Uppsala University, Department of Economics
• Home page for this series

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Ulrika Öjdeby ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2010_017This page generated on 2024-09-13 22:17:37.