Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Paper Series,
Uppsala University, Department of Economics

No 2014:10: Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target - A Dynamical Systems Approach

Shyam Ranganathan () and Ranjula Bali Swain ()
Additional contact information
Shyam Ranganathan: Department of Mathematics, Postal: Uppsala University,
Ranjula Bali Swain: Department of Economics, Postal: Uppsala University, P.O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden

Abstract: Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing estimated parameters, we nd that limiting the burden of emission reduction to the top 25 global emitters, does not increase their encumbrance. In absence of emission cuts, technology and preferences for environmental quality have to improve by at least 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent if the emission target has to be met by 2020.

Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals; dynamical systems; Bayesian; greenhouse gases

JEL-codes: C51; C52; C53; C61; Q01; Q50

40 pages, October 31, 2014

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