Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers in Economics and Statistics,
Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics

No 14/2024: How Has the War in Ukraine Affected Russian Sentiments?

Mikael Elinder (), Oscar Erixson () and Olle Hammar ()
Additional contact information
Mikael Elinder: Department of Economics, Uppsala University
Oscar Erixson: Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University
Olle Hammar: Department of Economics and Statistics, Postal: Department of Economics and Statistics, School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 351 95 Växjö, Sweden

Abstract: We analyze the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally ‘round the flag effects and widespread domestic support for the war, sustained despite high casualties through strategic recruitment and economic compensations. While it thus seems unlikely that a public uprising will end the war soon, we also find that sentiments among Russians abroad have shifted against Putin, aligning with global views.

Keywords: War; Russia; Sentiments; Rally ‘round the flag; Putin

JEL-codes: D72; F51; H56

Language: English

49 pages, November 15, 2024

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