Working papers in Transport Economics
Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications
() and Niclas A. Krüger
Abstract: This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the
Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions.
Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish
Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during
2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time
in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be
plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay
time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that
extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures
improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size,
but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power
law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to
stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and
expected delay over different time scales.
Keywords: Reliability; Vulnerability; Value of travel time variability; Distribution fitting; Exponential distribution; Power law distribution; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: H54; R42; (follow links to similar papers)
31 pages, May 8, 2013
Published in: The 5th International Symposium on Transportation Network Reliability (INSTR2012), Hong Kong, China, December 18-19, 2012, pp. 61-61
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