S-WoPEc
 
Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
HomeAboutSeriesSubject/JEL codesAdvanced Search
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)
Working papers in Transport Economics

No 2016:13:
Explaining “peak car” with economic variables

Anne Bastian (), Maria Börjesson () and Jonas Eliasson ()

Abstract: Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact enough to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000’s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.

Keywords: Peak car; Fuel price elasticity; GDP elasticity; Travel demand; (follow links to similar papers)

JEL-Codes: D61; H54; R41; R42; R48; (follow links to similar papers)

24 pages, April 19, 2016

Before downloading any of the electronic versions below you should read our statement on copyright.
Download GhostScript for viewing Postscript files and the Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing pdf files.

Full text versions of the paper:

CTS2016-13.pdf    PDF-file
Download Statistics
This paper is published as:
Bastian, Anne, Maria Börjesson and Jonas Eliasson, (2016), 'Explaining “peak car” with economic variables', Transportation Research A, Vol. 88, pages 236-250



Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Mats Berggren ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson () or Helena Lundin ().

Programing by
Design by Joachim Ekebom

Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2016_013 This page was generated on 2016-07-01 16:05:16