Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, Uppsala University
No 2010:1:
College Achievement and Earnings
Jonathan Gemus ()
Abstract: I study the size and sources of the monetary return to
college achievement as measured by cumulative Grade Point Average (GPA). I
first present evidence that the return to achievement is large and
statistically significant. I find, however, that this masks variation in
the return across different groups of people. In particular, there is no
relationship between GPA and earnings for graduate degree holders but a
large and positive relationship for people without a graduate degree. To
reconcile these results, I develop a model where students of differing and
initially uncertain ability levels choose effort level in college and
whether to earn a graduate degree. College achievement and graduate
attainment are allowed to increase human capital and be used by employers
to screen workers. In the separating equilibrium studied, workers who earn
a graduate degree can effectively signal high productivity to employers. As
a result, employers use undergraduate GPA-a noisy signal of productivity-to
screen only the workers who do not hold a graduate degree. Viewing the
empirical results through the lens of this equilibrium, the zero
GPA-earnings relationship for graduate degree holders and the positive and
large relationship for people without a graduate degree suggests that most
of the reutrn to achievement net of graduate educational attainment is
driven by sorting.
Keywords: Returns to Education; Academic Achievement; Signaling; Human Capital; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: D82; I20; I21; J24; (follow links to similar papers)
43 pages, January 27, 2010
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