Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Working Papers,
University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics
No 01-5: Has the accuracy of energy demand projections in the OECD countries improved since the 1970s?
Jan Bentzen () and Hans Linderoth ()
Additional contact information
Jan Bentzen: Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, Postal: Prismet, Silkeborgvej 2, DK 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Hans Linderoth: Department of Economics, Aarhus School of Business, Postal: Prismet, Silkeborgvej 2, DK 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
Abstract: Since the 1970s almost all OECD countries have published projections or forecasts of future
energy consumption. By now, three decades later, the actual values of energy consumption are
available for the same number of countries and thus a considerable amount of empirical data is
available concerning formal hypothesis testing, e.g. whether there have been improvements in
the forecasting accuracy during this period. Using data for sixteen OECD countries the empirical
evidence weakly favors the hypothesis that these countries have made some advances in
forecasting accuracy concerning projections at the aggregate level of energy consumption and
to a lesser degree at sectoral levels. Also, in accordance with a priori expectations, the forecasting
failure is increasing with the length of the forecasting horizon.
Keywords: Energy demand projections; OECD countries; Forecasting accuracy
15 pages, January 1, 2001
Full text files
01-5_jb.pdf
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