Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland
The stability of electricity prices: estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents
(), Tung Liu
() and Anna Widerberg
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to illustrate how the stability
of a stochastic dynamic system is measured using the Lyapunov exponents.
Specifically, we use a feedforward neural network to estimate these
exponents as well as asymptotic results for this estimator to test for
unstable (chaotic) dynamics. The data set used is spot electricity prices
from the Nordic power exchange market. Nord Pool, and the dynamic system
that generates these prices appears to be chaotic in one case.
Keywords: feedforward neural network; Nord Pool; Lyapunov exponents; spot electricity prices; stochastic dynamic system; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C12; C14; C22; (follow links to similar papers)
23 pages, June 12, 2006
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