Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland
No 3/2012:
Quantity rationing of credit
George A. Waters ()
Abstract: Quantity rationing of credit, when firms are denied loans,
has greater potential to explain macroeconomic fluctuations than borrowing
costs. This paper develops a DSGE model with both types of financial
frictions. A deterioration in credit market confidence leads to a temporary
change in the interest rate, but a persistent change in the fraction of
firms receiving financing, which leads to a persistent fall in real
activity. Empirical evidence confirms that credit market confidence,
measured by the survey of loan officers, is a significant leading indicator
for capacity utilization and output, while borrowing costs, measured by
interest rate spreads, is not.
Keywords: quantity rationing; credit; VAR; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: E10; E24; E44; E50; (follow links to similar papers)
26 pages, January 17, 2012
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