Research Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland
No 23/2014:
Volatility transfers between cycles: A theory of why the "great moderation" was more mirage than moderation
Patrick Crowley ()
and Andrew Hughes Hallett
Abstract: In this paper we use a New Keynesian model to explain why
volatility transfer from high frequency to low frequency cycles can and did
occur during the period commonly referred to as the "great moderation". The
model suggests that an increase in inflation aversion and/or a reduction to
a commitment to output stabilization could have caused this volatility
transfer. Together, the empirical and theoretical sections of the paper
show that the "great moderation" may have been mostly an illusion, in that
lower frequency cycles can be expected to be more volatile, given that
there has been no apparent reversal in any of the policy parameters and
hence in the volatility found in the low frequency cycles identifi…ed by
use of time-frequency empirical techniques. In fact, those cycles appear to
have increased in power and volatility in both relative and absolute
terms.
Keywords: New Keynesian model; business cycles; growth cycles; time-frequency domain; discrete wavelet analysis; Empirical Mode Decomposition; (follow links to similar papers)
JEL-Codes: C14; E23; E32; E37; (follow links to similar papers)
19 pages, July 15, 2014
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