Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working papers in Transport Economics,
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)

No 2012:29: Marginal railway track renewal costs: a survival data approach

Mats Andersson () and Gunilla Björklund ()
Additional contact information
Mats Andersson: Swedish Transport Agency
Gunilla Björklund: VTI, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper, renewal costs for railway tracks are investigated using survival analysis. The purpose is to derive the effect from increased traffic volumes on rail renewal cycle lengths and to calculate associated marginal costs. A flow sample of censored data containing almost 1 300 observations on the Swedish main railway network is used. We specify Weibull accelerated failure time regression models, and estimate deterioration elasticities for total tonnage as well as for passenger and freight tonnages separately. Marginal costs are calculated as a change in present values of renewal costs from premature renewal following increased traffic volumes. The marginal cost for aggregate freight and passenger tonnage is estimated to approximately SEK 0.002 per gross ton kilometre.

Keywords: Railway; Renewal; Survival analysis; Marginal costs

JEL-codes: C41; H54; L92; R48

30 pages, December 21, 2012

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CTS2012-29.pdf PDF-file 

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