() and Maria Börjesson
Jonas Eliasson: KTH, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Maria Börjesson: KTH, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract: The benefits captured in an appraisal of a railway investment are determined by what timetables the analyst assumes in the scenarios with and without the investment. Without an explicit, objective and verifiable principle for which timetables to assume, the appraisal outcome is virtually arbitrary. This means that appraisals of railway investments cannot be compared to each other, and opens the door for strategic behaviour by stakeholders conducting seemingly objective cost-benefit analysis. We explain and illustrate the nature and extent of the problem, and discuss the practical consequences for appraisal comparability and conscious or unconscious misrepresentation. Finally, we discuss possible objective principles for appraisal timetable construction and contrast this with current practice, which is shown to be likely to exaggerate investment benefits in an appraisal.
21 pages, October 28, 2013
Note: Previously published in: Proceedings of the 2011 Conference and the Summer School, Stockholm, Sweden, June 29, 2011. And in: TRB 91st Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers DVD, 2012, Paper no: 12-2124.
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