Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working papers in Transport Economics,
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)

No 2014:18: The Swedish car fleet model: evaluation of recent applications

Muriel Beser Hugosson (), Staffan Algers (), Shiva Habibi () and Pia Sundbergh ()
Additional contact information
Muriel Beser Hugosson: KTH/TLA, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Staffan Algers: KTH/TLA, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Shiva Habibi: KTH/TLA, Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Pia Sundbergh: Transport Analysis (Sweden), Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: The composition of the car fleet with respect to age, fuel consumption and fuel types plays an important role on environmental effects, oil dependency and energy consumption. In Sweden, a number of different policies have been implemented to support CO2 emission reductions. In order to evaluate effects of different policies, a model for the evolution of the Swedish car fleet was developed in 2006. The model has been used in a number of projects since then, and it is now possible to compare forecasts with actual outcomes. Such evidence is relatively rare, and we think it may be useful to share our experience in this respect. We give a brief overview of the Swedish car fleet model. Then we describe policies that have been implemented in recent years and the evolution of the Swedish car fleet. We then focus on two projects which enable comparison with actual outcomes, and analyse the differences between forecasts and outcomes. We find that the model has weaknesses in catching car buyers’ preferences of new technology. When this is not challenged too much, the model can forecast reasonably well on an aggregate level. We also find that he model is quite sensitive to assumptions on future supply. This is not so much related to the model, but to its use. Depending on the use of the forecasts – be it car sales, emissions or fuel demand – it may be necessary to use different supply scenarios to get an idea of the robustness of the forecast result.

Keywords: Clean car policy; Car fleet model; Forecasting; Model evaluation; Scrapping model; Nested logit

JEL-codes: R40

25 pages, First version: September 29, 2014. Revised: November 10, 2014.

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