Working papers in Transport Economics,
CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI)

Abstract: The purpose of the present study is to estimate accident risks and marginal costs for railway level crossings in Sweden. The marginal effect of train traffic on the accident risk is used to derive the marginal cost per train passage that is due to level crossing accidents. The estimations are based on Swedish data from 2000 to 2012 on level crossing accidents, train volume, and crossing characteristics. In this study we estimate the accidents risk for both motorized road traffic and vulnerable road users. As a proxy for road traffic flow we use three categories of road type, and to capture the influences of pedestrians and bicyclists we use information about the number of persons living nearby the level crossing. The results show that both protection device, road type, traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the level crossing have significant influences on the accident probability. The marginal cost per train passage regarding motor vehicle accidents is estimated at SEK 1.51 on average in 2012. The corresponding number for accidents with vulnerable road users excluding suicides is SEK 0.79 or including suicides SEK 5.02. The cost per train passage varies substantially depending on type of protection device, road type, the traffic volume of the trains, and number of persons living nearby the crossing.

Keywords: Railway; Marginal cost; Accident probability: Level crossings

JEL-codes: D62; H23; R41

22 pages, First version: February 13, 2019. Revised: December 22, 2020. Earlier revisions: December 22, 2020, December 22, 2020.

Note: Published in Transport Policy. Vol. 83, November 2019, Pages 68-79

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