Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

HoSS Working Paper Series,
Stockholm School of Economics, House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)

No 2026-6: Female Jobs and Fertility: Long-term Experimental Evidence from Ethiopian Factories

Andreas Kotsadam, Janneke Pieters, Pauline Rossi, Espen Villanger, Céline Zipfel () and Tigabu Getahun
Additional contact information
Andreas Kotsadam: Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research
Janneke Pieters: Wageningen University
Pauline Rossi: CREST-École Polytechnique
Espen Villanger: Chr. Michelsen Institute
Céline Zipfel: House of Sustainable Society (HoSS), Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Tigabu Getahun: EconInsight Center for Development Research

Abstract: We conducted an experiment with multiple factories in Ethiopia to test the widespread hypothesis that formal employment among women reduces fertility. Tracking respondents over eight years, we find that women who were randomly offered a job had more children than the control group. The effect on fertility emerged once the effect on wage employment faded away, around three years after baseline. There are clear effects on household income and savings, but not on bargaining power or marriage. These patterns are consistent with a Beckerian model in which the income effect dominates the substitution effect and households are credit constrained.

Keywords: Female employment; fertility; industrialization; sub-Saharan Africa

JEL-codes: J13; J16; J22; O15; O55

Language: English

60 pages, October 8, 2026

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