Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance,
Stockholm School of Economics

No 134: Bartlett Corrections in Cointegration Testing

Tor Jacobson () and Rolf Larsson
Additional contact information
Tor Jacobson: Department of Economic Statistics, Postal: Stockholm School of Economics, Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Rolf Larsson: Department of Statistics, Postal: University of Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: When testing for cointegration, the asymptotic inference typically in use can be plagued by size distortion due to an inadequate first order approximation. Hence, for practical purposes the inference can be completely misleading and result in false conclusions regarding the presence of long-run relationships in the data. Which, of course, in many applications is a key issue. We explore the potentials of Bartlett correction of two cointegration test statistics. The idea is to multiply the test statistic by a correcting factor derived from an asymptotic expansion of its expectation. As a consequence, the reference distribution should then provide a closer approximation to the resulting adjusted statistic in comparison with the unadjusted statistic. In a simple bivariate framework we derive a likelihood ratio test, as well as a first order approximation thereof, for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegration. Suitable Bartlett corrections for the two tests are suggested and using Monte Carlo simulation we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Bartlett correction; cointegration testing; Monte Carlo simulation

JEL-codes: C12; C15

29 pages, November 1996

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