Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance,
Stockholm School of Economics

No 336: Forecasting performance of seasonal cointegration models

Mårten Löf () and Johan Lyhagen ()
Additional contact information
Mårten Löf: Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Postal: P.O. Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
Johan Lyhagen: Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics, Postal: P.O. Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: Forecasts from seasonal cointegration models are compared with those from a standard cointegration model based on first differences and seasonal dummies. The effects of restricting or not restricting seasonal intercepts in the seasonal cointegration models are examined as well as the recently proposed specification and estimation procedure for the annual frequency by Johansen and Schaumburg (1999). The data generating process used in the Monte Carlo simulation is based on an empirical six-dimensional macroeconomic data set. Results show that the seasonal cointegration model improves forecasting accuracy, compared with the standard cointegration model, even in small samples and if short forecast horizons are considered. Furthermore, the specification suggested by Johansen and Schaumburg seems to work better than the original model presented by Lee (1992). An empirical forecasting example confirm most of the results found in the Monte Carlo study.

Keywords: Seasonal cointegration; Monte Carlo; Forecasting

JEL-codes: C32; C53

19 pages, October 12, 1999

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