Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

IHE Report / IHE Rapport,
IHE - The Swedish Institute for Health Economics

No 2016:9: The costs of diabetes in 2020 and 2030 − A model analysis comparing innovative glucose lowering treatments in second line following European and American guidelines compared to current standard of care

Adam Fridhammar (), Emelie Andersson () and Katarina Steen Carlsson ()

Abstract: A previous report estimated the long-term complications and societal costs of type 2 diabetes in 2020 and 2030 in Sweden (IHE Report 2015:1). That analysis showed that a more intensive treatment strategy, with more frequent health care contacts and a lower threshold for treatment change, reduces the risk of premature death and lead to fewer microvascular and macrovascular complications. By year 2030, the more intensive treatment strategy was cost-neutral.

This report (IHE Report 2016:9) updates the previous one by evaluating the effects from including DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors in second-line treatment. This treatment strategy is estimated to reduces the risk of premature death and decrease microvascular and macrovascular complications compared to a strategy similar to current standard of care in Sweden. At the current price level, the total societal cost was estimated to increase due to the use DPP-4 inhibitors, GLP-1 agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors. When accounting for expected price reduction due to future patent expiries, the total societal cost was instead estimated to decrease by year 2030.

Keywords: diabetes 2016

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