Working Paper Series,
Research Institute of Industrial Economics

Abstract: This study critically examines HYBRIT (Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology), a Swedish flagship project—led by the government-owned iron ore company LKAB—to produce fossil-free sponge iron using hydrogen from fossil-free electricity. Positioned as a cornerstone of the EU Green Deal and Sweden’s green industrial transition, HYBRIT promised CO₂ reductions significantly exceeding Sweden’s current total emissions, but entailed unprecedented technological, economic, and infrastructural challenges. The analysis situates HYBRIT within the broader trend of “moonshot” industrial policies, emphasizing their susceptibility to political enthusiasm, rent-seeking, and disregard for opportunity costs. Technologically, the project required large-scale hydrogen production, storage, and industrial adaptation, unproven at a commercial scale. Economically, profitability hinged on exceptionally low electricity prices and high CO₂ emission costs—conditions unlikely to persist—while facing intensifying global competition in the green steel sector. Electricity supply constraints, particularly in northern Sweden, compounded feasibility concerns. Political, regional, and corporate interests aligned to advance HYBRIT despite these risks, aided by limited external scrutiny of state-owned firms. Growing criticism and competing priorities eventually led LKAB to defer its sponge iron ambitions indefinitely, reframing its strategy around high-grade ore and the extraction of rare earth metals and phosphorus. The case illustrates the pitfalls of mission-oriented policies when technological and market realities are subordinated to political symbolism, underscoring the need for rigorous, independent evaluation of large-scale green industrial projects.

Keywords: Green deals; Green steel; Hydrogen; Mission-oriented policies; Moonshots; Public choice; Rent-seeking

JEL-codes: L20; L52; L70; O38; Q28; Q48

Language: English

18 pages, December 11, 2025

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