Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Lund Papers in Economic History,
Lund University, Department of Economic History

No 170: Uncertainty and the Great Slump

Jason Lennard ()
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Jason Lennard: Department of Economic History, Lund University, Postal: Department of Economic History, Lund University, Box 7083, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macroeconomy of interwar Britain. A new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from contemporary newspapers indicates that this was a period of great anxiety. Time series evidence suggests that this uncertainty reduced output, raised unemployment and contributed to macroeconomic volatility.

Keywords: business cycles; interwar Britain; local projections; narrative identification; uncertainty

JEL-codes: E32; E60; N14; N44

30 pages, First version: February 1, 2018. Revised: May 14, 2019. Earlier revisions: July 19, 2018.

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