Working Papers,
Lund University, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper analyses exit probabilities from different types of temporary jobs to open-ended jobs in Sweden during 1991-1999. The main aim of the study is to illuminate how the exit probabilities, and their determinants, differ by type of temporary job. A second focus is how the exit probabilities differ depending on origin and gender, i.e. a segmentation aspect. The results show that the exit probabilities differ between different types of temporary jobs, and that variables that have been shown to affect the incidence of temporary jobs, also in many cases are significant determinants of the probability to leave (or not leave) a temporary job. Our results also show that all types of temporary jobs (but probation) on average perform rather poorly as stepping-stones into open-ended jobs. By calculating predicted exit probabilities we also show that there are differences between the genders, and also between native origins. The probability to exit to open-ended jobs are on average lower for females than for males, and they are also, on average, lower for foreign-born workers than for native Swedes.

Keywords: Temporary jobs; exit probability; foreign-born; gender; segmentation

JEL-codes: J21; J40; J49

28 pages, November 30, 2004

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WP05_14.pdf  

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