Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Lund University, Department of Economics

No 2016:2: Cross-Commodity News Transmission and Volatility Spillovers in the German Energy Markets

Rikard Green (), Karl Larsson (), Veronika Lunina () and Birger Nilsson ()
Additional contact information
Rikard Green: E.ON Sverige AB, Postal: S-20509 Malmö, Sweden
Karl Larsson: Statistics Sweden, Postal: S-70189 Örebro, Sweden
Veronika Lunina: Department of Economics, Lund University, Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden
Birger Nilsson: Department of Economics, Lund University, Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden

Abstract: This study investigates volatility spillovers to electric power from large exogenous shocks in the prices of gas, coal, and carbon emission allowances in the German energy market. Our sample ranges from 2008 to 2016 and covers periods of different market conditions. We use a general VAR-BEKK model and the volatility impulse response function methodology to analyze and evaluate the spillover effects. Special attention is paid to selecting an appropriate econometric volatility model. Our results show that the spillover effects often are of a significant magnitude and display considerable variation over time and across commodities. Coal and gas generate non-negligible spillovers during almost the entire sample period. Carbon has very little impact during the early and late parts of the sample, but generates significant, and highly variable, spillovers during the period from 2011 to the end of 2014.

Keywords: energy markets; time-varying volatility spillovers; volatility impulse response function; skew-Student asymmetric BEKK

JEL-codes: C32; C58; G10; Q41

48 pages, First version: January 13, 2016. Revised: October 11, 2017. Earlier revisions: February 2, 2016, August 27, 2016, May 28, 2017.

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