Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Lund University, Department of Economics

No 2016:13: Irish GDP between the Famine and the First World War: Estimates Based on a Dynamic Factor Model

Fredrik N. G. Andersson () and Jason Lennard ()
Additional contact information
Fredrik N. G. Andersson: Department of Economics, Lund University, Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden
Jason Lennard: Department of Economic History, Lund University

Abstract: A major issue in Irish economic history is the lack of national accounts before the interwar period. This paper constructs new annual estimates of real GDP between 1842 and 1913 based on a novel two-stage econometric approach. Our results show that while living standards approximately tripled in this period, development was uneven with contractions in economic activity not only during the Great Famine but also between the late 1890s and the First World War. As a proof of concept, we also apply our methodology to Swedish data. The resulting estimates closely match existing historical national accounts.

Keywords: Ireland; GDP; Famine; Historical national accounts

JEL-codes: C38; E01; N13

45 pages, First version: June 27, 2016. Revised: January 16, 2018. Earlier revisions: April 13, 2017.

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