Working Papers,
Lund University, Department of Economics

Abstract: We provide evidence of a positive effect of major infrastructure development on international trade, using the opening of the fixed link between Denmark and Sweden in 2000 (The Oresund Bridge) as a quasi-natural experiment. Our Synthetic Control Method (SCM) constructs a counterfactual Danish-Swedish trade relationship, which represents bilateral trade in the absence of the bridge. Evaluating actual trade against its synthetic counterpart for the period 2001-2008 shows that Danish-Swedish trade was 24.6% larger than it would have been in the absence of the bridge using our preferred specification. The result is robust to standard sensitivity checks. We supplement our analysis with a standard Difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator, which uses fixed effects. The DiD estimator yields a slightly larger trade effect of 26.7%, and is robust to a number of sensitivity analyses, including estimation at the product level. Both our SCM and DiD point to the trade-boosting effects being gradual.

Keywords: Fixed link; bridge; tunnel; transport infrastructure; trade; Synthetic Control Method; Difference-in-differences

JEL-codes: F14; F15

Language: English

50 pages, February 8, 2022

Full text files

WP22_3  Full text

Download statistics

• Lund University, Department of Economics
• Home page for this series

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Iker Arregui Alegria ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2022_003This page generated on 2024-09-13 22:16:10.