Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Paper Series in Economics,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

No 20/2014: Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models.

Arturo Ormeno () and Krisztina Molnar ()
Additional contact information
Arturo Ormeno: Credit Suisse AG, Postal: Credit Suisse AG, Switzerland
Krisztina Molnar: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH , Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway

Abstract: Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restriction and helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting model for in ation. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations in fitting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in fitting macro and survey data simultaneously. In other words survey data contains additional information that is not present in the macro data alone.

Keywords: Survey data; learning; rational expectations; inflation expectations; Bayesian econometrics.

JEL-codes: C61; D84; E30; E52

32 pages, June 30, 2014

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