Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Paper Series in Economics,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

No 19/2016: Determinants of long-term economic Growth redux: A Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach.

Gernot Doppelhofer (), Ole-Petter Moe Hansen () and Melvyn Weeks ()
Additional contact information
Gernot Doppelhofer: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH , Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Ole-Petter Moe Hansen: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH , Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Melvyn Weeks: University of Cambridge, Postal: University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics and Clare College, Cambridge CB3 9DD,, UK

Abstract: This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section of countries. We propose a novel Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach that accounts for measurement error in international income data as well as model uncertainty. Estimating the model using eight vintages of the Penn World Tables (PWT) together with other proposed growth determinants, we identify 18 variables related to economic growth. The results are robust to allowing for outliers in the form of heteroscedastic model errors.

Keywords: growth regression; robust growth determinants; measurement error; Bayesian modelling

JEL-codes: C11; C82; E01; O47

55 pages, December 21, 2016

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