Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Paper Series in Economics,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

No 15/2018: Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks

Manudeep Bhuller (), Gordon B Dahl (), Katrine V. Løken () and Magne Mogstad ()
Additional contact information
Manudeep Bhuller: University of Oslo, Postal: Department of Economics, Unviversity of Oslo
Gordon B Dahl: UC San Diego, Postal: Department of Economics, UC San Diego
Katrine V. Løken: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH , Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Magne Mogstad: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Chicago

Abstract: Using quasi-random assignment of criminal cases to judges, we estimate large incarceration spillovers in criminal and brother networks. When a defendant is sent to prison, there are 51 and 32 percentage point reductions in the probability his criminal network members and younger brothers will be charged with a crime, respectively, over the ensuing four years. Correlational evidence misleadingly finds small positive effects. These spillovers are of first order importance for policy, as the network reductions in future crimes committed are larger than the direct effect on the incarcerated defendant.

Keywords: Incarceration; peer effects; criminal networks

JEL-codes: K42

26 pages, July 25, 2018

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