Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Paper Series in Economics,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

No 4/2024: Exam Luck and Human Capital Accumulation

Catalina Franco () and Erika Povea ()
Additional contact information
Catalina Franco: Centre for Applied Research, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: SNF, Centre for Applied Research, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Erika Povea: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH, Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway

Abstract: We show that subtle standardized test design features can shape long-term educational trajectories. Exploiting random variation in the placement of correct answers in a Colombian college entrance exam, we find that students are 5% less likely to answer correctly when the correct option appears last (option D). This pattern is economically consequential: those assigned to “unlucky” booklets with more Ds in math score 0.011 SD lower overall and are 3% less likely to gain admission to their first-choice major. The mechanism is consistent with students overlooking options at the bottom of the list when scanning answers sequentially under time pressure.

Keywords: Multiple choice questions; standardized tests; answer placement; performance; admissions; higher education

JEL-codes: C93; D83; I21; I23; I24

Language: English

62 pages, First version: April 14, 2024. Revised: September 11, 2025.

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