Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Discussion Paper Series in Economics,
Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

No 5/2026: Supply-Side Drug Enforcement and Economic Development

Daniela Horta-Saenz () and Anderson Tami-Patiño ()
Additional contact information
Daniela Horta-Saenz: Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Postal: NHH, Department of Economics, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Anderson Tami-Patiño: Dept. of Economics, KIMEP University, Postal: KIMEP University, Department of Economics, 4 Abai Avenue, 050010 Almaty, Kazakhstan

Abstract: Do coercive efforts to dismantle illicit economic activity promote development, or can they inadvertently undermine it? We study this question in the context of Colombia’s large-scale aerial eradication of coca crops using glyphosate. We digitize detailed geographic data on sprayed areas and exploit quasi-random variation in exposure to eradication flights to estimate effects on human capital and socioeconomic outcomes. In the short term, aerial eradication increases school dropout, primarily through negative income shocks to affected households. Over time, exposed villages exhibit lower educational attainment, higher child labor, earlier marriage, and poorer living conditions even after spraying ceased.

Keywords: Drug Control Policies; Human Capital; Rural Development

JEL-codes: I25; K42; O15

Language: English

93 pages, April 23, 2026

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