Working Papers,
Örebro University, School of Business

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude and age adjusted mortality andeconomic conditions by wavelet analysis in Sweden over the period 1800-2000. We use wavelet correlations and cross-correlations to analyze the contemporaneous connection as well as the lead/lag relationship between mortality and GDP at different time scales. Our results indicate a countercyclical relationship, i.e. mortality decreases in economic upturns, for all time horizons. The relationship is strongest and highly significant for dynamics with a period between 4 and 8 years, corresponding to the length of a typical Swedish business cycle. By means of vector autoregressive modelling, we further examine the dynamics of the response in mortality to an exogenous GDP growth shock. Our results indicate that economic upturns decreases contemporaneous mortality and increases mortality between six and eight years ahead.

Keywords: Mortality; GDP growth; Wavelet

JEL-codes: E32; I12

22 pages, October 29, 2007

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Published as

Niclas A Krüger and Mikael Svensson, (2012), 'Economic Fluctuations and Mortality:Evidence from Wavelet Analysis for Sweden 1800-2000', Journal of Population Economics, vol 25, pages 1215-1235

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