Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Örebro University, School of Business

No 2020:11: Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?

Kamil Kladivko () and Pär Österholm ()
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Kamil Kladivko: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden
Pär Österholm: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate households’ directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The analysis is conducted using monthly forecasts from the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey that range from January 1996 until August 2019. Results indicate that households have statistically significant ability to forecast where the unem-ployment is headed, but they fail in predicting the direction of future inflation.

Keywords: Survey data; Directional forecasts; Inflation; Unemployment

JEL-codes: E37

8 pages, October 9, 2020

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