Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Memorandum,
Oslo University, Department of Economics

No 12/2002: Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labour Market Entry Affect Future Unemployment?

Oddbjørn Raaum () and Knut Røed ()
Additional contact information
Oddbjørn Raaum: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Knut Røed: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway

Abstract: Labour market conditions at the time and place of potential entry into the labour market are shown to have a substantial and persistent impact on adult labour market performance. Birth cohorts that face particularly depressed labour markets when they graduate from primary- and/or secondary education are – other things equal - subject to relatively high rates of unemployment during their whole prime-age work career. Building on a unique combination of micro- and macro data from Norway, we show that these effects are robust with respect to model-specifications and conditioning variables, and that they are not limited to particularly disadvantaged groups of workers.

Keywords: Unemployment; Marginalisation; Scarring.

JEL-codes: J64

24 pages, June 17, 2003

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