Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Memorandum,
Oslo University, Department of Economics
No 17/2005: Young and Out: An Application of a Prospects-Based Concept of Social Exclusion
Oddbjørn Raaum (), Jon Rogstad (), Knut Røed () and Lars Westlie ()
Additional contact information
Oddbjørn Raaum: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Postal: Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway
Jon Rogstad: Institute for Social Research, Postal: Postbox 3233 Elisenberg, N-0208 Oslo, Norway
Knut Røed: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Postal: Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway
Lars Westlie: The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Postal: Gaustadalléen 21, N-0349 Oslo, Norway
Abstract: We develop a forward-looking empirical concept of social exclusion based on the estimated transition probabilities from a random effects multinominal logit-model. Youths are considered socially excluded if they are currently outside school/work and have a low predicted probability of re-entering in the near future. Implemented on extraordinary rich event history data of compulsory school graduates, we estimate social exclusion among Norwegian youths and find that social exclusion is (i) non-cyclical; (ii) rare among teen-agers, except for immigrant children and individuals with a disadvantaged family background; (iii) more prevalent among young adults in their early twenties; and (iv) independent of gender
Keywords: social exclusion; multinominal logit-model; Youths
JEL-codes: I29
49 pages, May 30, 2005
Full text files
Memo-17-2005.pdf
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