Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Memorandum,
Oslo University, Department of Economics
No 01/2013: An Equilibrium Model of Credit Rating Agencies
Steinar Holden (), Gisle James Natvig () and Adrien Vigier ()
Additional contact information
Steinar Holden: Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Gisle James Natvig: Norges Bank, Postal: Bankplassen 2, 0151 Oslo, Norway
Adrien Vigier: Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Abstract: We develop a model of credit rating agencies (CRAs) based on reputation concerns. Ratings a ect investors' choice and, thereby, also issuers' access to funding and default risk. We show that in equilibrium { the informational content of credit ratings is inferior to that of CRAs' private information. We nd that CRAs have a pro-cyclical impact on default risk: in a liq- uidity boom CRAs help resolve investors' coordination problem, and lower the probability of default; in a liquidity crunch CRAs raise the probability of default. Furthermore, rating stan- dards tend to be pro-cyclical, while biased CRA-incentives will ultimately be self-defeating.
Keywords: Credit rating agencies; global games; coordination failure
34 pages, December 18, 2012
Full text files
memo-01-2013.pdf
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