Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Memorandum,
Oslo University, Department of Economics
No 16/2016: The dynamics of revolutions
Daniel Spiro () and Moti Michaeli
Additional contact information
Daniel Spiro: Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Moti Michaeli: Department of Economics, European University Institute, Italy and the University of Haifa, Israel., Postal: Department of Economics, The Univeristy of Haifa , 199 Aba Khoushy Ave., Mount Carmel, Haifa, Israel 3498838
Abstract: This paper studies the dynamic process of revolutions and mass protests. In a unified framework we explain three classes of revolutions that have been observed historically and earlier models cannot explain: 1) a revolution where the most extreme opponents of the regime protest fiercely and gradually recruit more moderate dissidents; 2) a revolution where moderates, or regime insiders, lead the way and gradually recruit more extreme regime opponents; 3) a revolution where those who dislike the regime the most are gradually pushing the freedom of speech, backed by increased dissent of moderate individuals. These revolutions match the dynamics of many major revolutionary processes, such as the Iranian revolution in 1979, the fall of the communist regimes in eastern Europe in 1989, the Arab Spring in Egypt in 2011, the April Revolution in South Korea in 1960 and the protests on Tiananmen Square in 1989.
Keywords: Revolution; Mass protest; Regime; Dissent
50 pages, November 23, 2016
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memo-16-2016.pdf
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