Ratio Working Papers,
The Ratio Institute

Abstract: The report examines how economic policy can influence childbearing and assesses the relevance of international evidence for Sweden. The analysis combines a review of empirical research with life-cycle economic theory and illustrative calculations of the contribution of family support to household finances. It considers child benefits, subsidised childcare and paid parental leave alongside housing conditions. The evidence suggests that financial incentives can influence fertility but that effects vary across population groups and institutional settings. Findings from other countries cannot be directly transferred to Sweden, where family support is already extensive and further spending increases are likely to yield limited marginal effects. Changes in the timing of births must also be distinguished from changes in completed fertility. The analysis highlights the circumstances of young adults entering the labour and housing markets. Low incomes and uncertainty during early adulthood can delay family formation and reduce the likelihood of achieving desired family size. The report concludes that policy design and timing within the life course matter. Measures that reduce financial barriers and uncertainty during family formation may therefore offer greater potential to influence fertility than general increases in support for established families.

Keywords: fertility; family policy; child benefits; childcare; parental leave; housing

JEL-codes: H53; J13; J18

Language: English

47 pages, November 9, 2026

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