Working Papers,
Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)

Abstract: This study examines individuals' perception of their own road-mortality risk. Swedish data on respondents' subjective risk beliefs is used and compared with objective risk estimates. The objective risk is defined as the risk of the respondent's own age and gender group, and it is found that low and high risk groups over- and underassess their risk levels, respectively. This study replicates the analysis used by Andersson and Lundborg (2007) and the pattern of over- and underassessment found confirms their findings. As in their study, risk beliefs are updated in line with the Bayesian learning model, a relationship not statistically significant in this study, though. Regarding results of individual characteristics and risk beliefs in both studies, whereas, e.g., gender effects are robust, other results suggest a weak relationship between the perception of own road-mortality risk and individual characteristics.

Keywords: Bayesian learning; Overall risk; Peers; Road-traffic risk

JEL-codes: C21; D81; D83; I18

20 pages, October 7, 2008

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Andersson_Risk_perc_road.pdf  

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Published as

Henrik Andersson, (2011), 'Perception of Own Death Risk: An Assessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk', Risk Analysis, vol 31, no 7, pages 1069-1082

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