Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)

No 2008:11: Perception of Own Death Risk: A Reassessment of Road-Traffic Mortality Risk

Henrik Andersson ()
Additional contact information
Henrik Andersson: VTI, Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract: This study examines individuals' perception of their own road-mortality risk. Swedish data on respondents' subjective risk beliefs is used and compared with objective risk estimates. The objective risk is defined as the risk of the respondent's own age and gender group, and it is found that low and high risk groups over- and underassess their risk levels, respectively. This study replicates the analysis used by Andersson and Lundborg (2007) and the pattern of over- and underassessment found confirms their findings. As in their study, risk beliefs are updated in line with the Bayesian learning model, a relationship not statistically significant in this study, though. Regarding results of individual characteristics and risk beliefs in both studies, whereas, e.g., gender effects are robust, other results suggest a weak relationship between the perception of own road-mortality risk and individual characteristics.

Keywords: Bayesian learning; Overall risk; Peers; Road-traffic risk

JEL-codes: C21; D81; D83; I18

20 pages, October 7, 2008

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Andersson_Risk_perc_road.pdf PDF-file 

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