Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics
Working Papers,
Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)
No 2023:12: Intensity and severity of ship conflicts : an AIS based approach
Gunnar Flötteröd (), Henrik Sjöstrand (), Filip Kristofersson () and Jonas Westin ()
Additional contact information
Gunnar Flötteröd: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Henrik Sjöstrand: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Filip Kristofersson: Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Jonas Westin: Umeå University, Postal: Dept. of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract: There is a lack of standardized methods for socio-economic evaluations within the maritime transport sector. This paper presents a model for analysing and quantifying the intensity and severity of ship conflicts using AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and expert assessments. Also, a case study applying the proposed method to the Southern Gothenburg Archipelago is carried out. The goal is to contribute to cost-benefit analyses within the maritime transport sector by a better understanding of how different actions, such as the widening of fairways or new regulation, impact maritime safety. The importance of validating the model by comparing its results with independent sources of reported maritime accidents is emphasized, and the challenges of using existing accident statistics for this purpose is discussed. The basic model described in the paper can be built upon by differentiating parameters by region and vessel type, account for seasonality etc. Furthermore, a downstream consequence analysis model is needed to enable a monetary valuation of (the consequences of) identified conflicts. Finally, the same principles as laid out here for conflict analysis can also be adopted to the identification of groundings.
Keywords: Socio-economic evaluation; Cost-benefit analysis; Maritime safety; AIS; Ship conflicts; Geometric probability; Probabilistic risk analysis
Language: English
20 pages, November 30, 2023
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