Scandinavian Working Papers in Economics

Working Papers,
Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)

No 2026:3: A bottom-up approach to estimating policy-induced changes in GHG emission and air pollution exposure from ships

Nanna Fukushima (), Eef van Dongen (), Inge Vierth () and Fredrik Windmark
Additional contact information
Nanna Fukushima: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: VTI, Division of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Eef van Dongen: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Inge Vierth: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: VTI, Division of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Fredrik Windmark: Air Navigation Services of Sweden (LFV), Norrköping, Sweden

Abstract: Maritime transport generates substantial greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution, yet policy appraisal commonly relies on aggregated handbook cost factors that insufficiently account for spatial heterogeneity in exposure. This paper develops a bottom-up framework integrating AIS-based ship position data with emission modelling, atmospheric dispersion, and population grids to evaluate health and climate impacts of maritime policies. Applying the method to Stockholm and Gothenburg, we simulate onshore power supply, electrification of public ferries, and full IMO Tier III compliance. Tier III delivers the largest NOₓ exposure reductions, while effects vary across regions. The approach enables consistent, spatially explicit welfare comparisons of maritime interventions.

Keywords: Maritime transport; Air pollution; External costs; Health impacts; Environmental policy; Spatial

JEL-codes: C51; H23; I18; Q53; Q54; R41

Language: English

41 pages, March 9, 2026

Full text files 

VTI%202026%203.pdf PDF-file Full text

Download statistics

Questions (including download problems) about the papers in this series should be directed to Transportbiblioteket ()
Report other problems with accessing this service to Sune Karlsson ().

RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2026_003This page generated on 2026-03-09 14:18:12.